How an individual can
Manage Investment Portfolio
This post only focuses on investment portfolio management by
an Individual. There are several theories that are being propounded for the
management of an Investment Portfolio. Before we move ahead let us try to
understand what a portfolio is and how a portfolio investment approach differs
from individual security analysis.
What is a portfolio?
A portfolio is a collection of two or more assets. When you
buy a stock of company X and one stock of company Y or may be a bond of company
A, you have a portfolio to take care of. The several types or classes of assets
could be bought and that too in differing proportions to be included in your
portfolio.
How portfolio investment is different from individual security
analysis?
For the purpose of portfolio analysis and management we
cannot look into each security in isolation as we do for security analysis. In
security analysis we try to study an individual stock or bond and look whether
it is fit to invest into or what will be its growth trajectory in the time to
come (may be in long-run or short run). Whereas in Portfolio Management we look
into the effect of collection of securities into a portfolio, how well they
behave when clubbed with each other and how the value of complete portfolio
works out to be for e.g. if a portfolio has 3 stocks each from a different
company and the total value of the portfolio is $30 (value of 3 stocks), now
the fourth stock is added into the portfolio by paying $10 the minimum expected
value of portfolio is $40 and it should grow with time, next year we expect the
value (market value + returns attained) of the portfolio to be $50 but other
things being constant, now the actual value (market value + returns attained)
is $ 38 that means the portfolio has lost value of $ 2 after inclusion of the
fourth stock and the fourth stock is not working well with the previous three
stocks.
To be honest you need to understand your own needs and
investing ability and the risk bearing capacity to manage your investments. No
given theory or suggested methods could best suit an investor’s individual needs,
only the individual can understand and make an educated effort to actively manage the portfolio all the
suggestions and theories could well act as a guideline and could be adopted in
varying proportion to suit the individual or retail investor’s specific needs.
The retail investor though is advised to follow the
principles of investing in equities as these principles are really helpful in
protecting and maintaining the value of the holding but the limit of usability
and the flexibility in the way of execution of each of these principle has to
be devised by the retail investor. Before we start discussion about key points
to remember in portfolio management, let us review key principles of portfolio theory –
1.
Principle
of Diversification – Securities bought should be from different sectors and
different industries and should be bought at different price ranges and at
different intervals. Variations in types of securities i.e. debt, long-term
debt, equity and might be inclusion of precious metal and property to diversify
completely will not be wrong and is advised. In India though use of property as
an investment asset is not considered as part of investment portfolio. The
securities bought should have varying degree of correlation so if the prices of
one security take the beating the prices of the other might go up to compensate
for your loos.
2.
Mix of
Debt & Equity – The investment portfolio should hold some debt
(long-term or short-term) and equities. The proportion of the two (debt vs.
equity) depends upon the individual’s needs.
3.
Value
Investing (Long –term investing) – It
is proposed and their exist sufficient evidence to suggest that long-term
investing results into capital appreciation and capital gain, which is actually
seek by most of the individual investors. Long-term holding may result into
rise in market prices of the stock but it is not a guarantee that if you hold
stocks long enough, may be 5-10 years the prices will rise sometimes there are
economic situations or may be other scenarios where the stock at given point of
time may be selling at a price lower than the purchase price. It is advisable
that investments should be made for long-term and day-trading or short-term
trading should be avoided as sufficient data will not be available to take
short-term buying and selling decisions. The exercise becomes very risk and almost
non-scientific in short-term.
4.
Risk and
Return – The concept of Risk and return could not be avoided and had to be
ardently followed. The ability to take risk and search for the higher returns has
always deluded investors but any retail investor is advised to take a
well-educated decision. Key point to remember is that there is no return
without taking any risk and to generate returns the risk could not be avoided.
The concept of proportional risk and return also is the matter of debate as the
search for significant evidence to suggest that there exists certain securities
for which equitable risk and return exists.
5.
No use of
leverage – Money to be invested in a portfolio, especially in a stock
portfolio should not be borrowed or funds invested should not have interest
charges attached to it, in the hope that prospective returns from the
investments are going to be higher than the attached cost of funds or interest
charges.
6. Do not try to time the market – Most of
the new naïve investors make this mistake as they try to enter into the stock
market when the market has a bull run or in other words the stock prices are
soaring and indices are skyrocketing. These investors enter in the hope and in
search of short-term profits or expectations are to make a windfall. They buy
stocks when the prices are moving up or soaring with the expectation that
prices will further go up and the investors on their recent purchases will be
able to make an abnormal profit that will facilitate major incomes after
offsetting any brokerage charges and tax liability.
Usually these naïve investors are not lucky
and they fail to predict the stock market movement and they keep holding their
investments in the hope of further rise in prices whereas the momentum is lost
and the prices started to fall.
Steps in Portfolio Management
The above process of portfolio management has to be carried
out actively by the investor and an investor has to be proactive in investing
and associated decision making. Point to remember is that you are responsible
for your own money and value of the assets, key objective being positive
movement in the value of assets!
The 3 step process seems easy but it is actually very
difficult to follow and implement.
Tips for Effective
Portfolio Management
1.
Invest for long-run and try to generate maximum
value both in terms of capital gains (positive changes in market price of the
security) and dividend income as well as interest from debt securities received
over the period of time.
2.
Try to diversify to the maximum, use your
knowledge and do active research for diversification. Focus should be to avoid
buying too many securities of the same type and from the same company or from
different companies from the same industry.
Diversification tries to minimize risk and proper diversification helps
in avoiding unsystematic or company or specific security related risk.
3.
Try to match risk return profile on your
portfolio. Remember no returns without risk and you cannot maximize returns at
a given level of risk. Risk profiling and matching the returns for a given
level of risk is important and the investor has to select optimum level of risk
and based upon level of risk, he should accept the returns.
4.
A natural tendency is to look at returns only or
to study returns over a period of time and then decide whether to invest or not
to invest but this is an inefficient practice and should be avoided. The more
educated practice is to look at your capacity to invest and ability to depart
with the invested amount, if your ability to lose money is less than try to
invest in less risky assets such as bonds, fixed deposits, mutual funds or debentures
and be ready to accept lower rate of returns. In other words look at risk first
and then try to see most optimal level of returns available for the given level
of risk.
5.
Portfolio churning or pruning of securities has
to be carried out at regular interval. Churning ratio should not be very high,
efforts should be made to select securities with strong fundamentals and good
grounding within the industry and the economy so you do not have to change or
buy & sell them often. Remember more transactions means high brokerage and
may be associated tax to be paid as hardly in the globe, any frequent stock
transactions are independent of brokerage and associated tax liability.
How to maximize your returns from the portfolio
Consider that all the principles
and tips for safe investment are being followed and now is the time of
selecting the assets and looking at how the securities are to be picked so most
appropriate balance within the portfolio is achieved. The starting point is
your investment objectives and ability to take risk and ability to depart with
liquidity or the lock-in (time when you cannot take out the money out of the
security) period suitable to your level of income or expected future level of
income.
The discussion to follow focuses
on maximizing the returns and how you can distribute your investments in
different level of securities (based upon capitalization and associated risk)
to maximize the associated returns from your portfolio. This strategy is just
indicative and has to be customized as per an individual’s risk appetite and
objectives.
The major assumptions for this
indicative strategy are –
1.
Insurance policy for life and health are
different and has been treated differently. Both term plans and endowment plans
are to be considered separately and not to be considered as part of this
investment strategy.
2.
Real Estate investments are different and could
not be directly considered as part of the suggested investment strategy.
3.
Pension products or recurring deposits are not
considered as they are the essentials and they are must to have in convenient
proportions before setting off the proposed investment strategy.
The indicative strategy uses an
investment value (initial outlay) of $100,000. To start we will try to create
some safety net by investing 30% or $ 30,000 in debt securities or mutual funds
dealing with debt or income funds. Next level of investment will be to put 20%
money in equity linked mutual funds or growth funds, point to consider is that
high risk funds investing in buyouts or Greenfield ventures should be avoided.
Out of remaining 50% or $50,000 we
will invest $30,000 in highly capitalized well consolidated stocks of
recognized corporation and would hold these stocks for long-term so as to
generate value or capital appreciation.
30%+30%+20% = 80% is invested or
$80,000 is invested and we are left with $20,000 to play with this is also the
amount with which we would like to maximize our returns but catch is also risk
will be increased. This 20% could be made less and even the above proportions
are suggestive not watertight or specific and an investor can adjust these
investment categories as per their comfort levels and needs.
The remaining 20% should be
invested into small caps or upcoming companies that showcases potential for
growth both in business and customer demand for its stock and product offerings
in consumer market and has high difference in their Maximum Market Value and
Minimum Market Value in last 52 weeks. These shares are to be bought and
observed over the period of time and should be churned (bought and sold) every
month and if price prospects on fortnightly observation seems favourable could
be kept in the portfolio for a month to a quarter but long-term holding should
be avoided as these stocks are potentially risky and the risk increases with
the time period of holding.
Portfolio Pruning and churning
(time frames)
The Portfolio pruning and churning
are two differentiated activities to be carried out at different time intervals
and to be evaluated as per the specific need of the specific portfolio.
Churning is a major activity and could be forced by several factors such as
economic conditions or may be change in the legal requirements or might be made
compulsory due to changes in statutory requirements. Churning means to change a
portfolio or to make evaluation about portfolio performance and see how the
expected returns could be maximized. An individual could plan certain
strategies to alter an entire portfolio as well could go ahead and change the
weights of the securities (stocks, bonds and certificates etc.) or the types of
investment vehicles (mutual funds – types, fixed deposits or corporate bonds.
Even period of investment could also be altered and capital market or money
market securities could be included or excluded as per the specific needs of an
individual) or types of investments (debts vs. equity). In simple words the
properties of the original portfolio could be changed and the newly emerged
portfolio might not have any resemblance to the original one.
The pruning means not to make
major alteration in the portfolio but to take out non-performing assets or
underperforming assets or securities and replace them with potentially more
profitable assets. The basic properties or the features of the portfolio are to
be kept same only certain securities are to be replaced. The process is quite similar to weeding and
an individual has to make sure that after pruning the portfolio grows and all
securities perform to the best level.
The Portfolio pruning process is an ever going process and has to be carried out at least once very fortnight or on continuous basis as the need arises. This is important to make sure your portfolio stays in shape and expected returns are not compromised. While pruning make sure the strict vigilance is kept over the penny stocks or small caps and they are replaced or kept under straight proportion (lower value) in relation to the total value or the worth of the portfolio.
The Portfolio churning could be done once a year and almost all securities has to undergo the process where a retail investor has to match the performance of the complete portfolio with the performance of the market as well as each of the security with other alternatives available in the specific industry (i.e. Steel, IT, Banking and Telecom) or the asset category (Mutual Funds, Money Market Securities or Stocks).
Some theorists propounds that FDs (auto renewal) or Large Caps should not be touched in short run and kept for longer periods as their value will rise and you will get magical returns… It is not recommended to keep any Asset or Asset Category to be kept unchecked. Though the advice is not to sell any asset if the prices are found extraordinarily high or low and replace them with something which might not be an exact match or the replacement for the asset you have sold. Recommended is to check and if financial sensibilities and indicators show that the financial asset is secured and still profitable then to keep it and if possible try to diversify the portfolio by buying or bringing in more assets or assets categories.
It has to be noted that more observant you are, more aware and vigilant you are, more secured will be your portfolio and higher will be the expected returns.
The Portfolio pruning process is an ever going process and has to be carried out at least once very fortnight or on continuous basis as the need arises. This is important to make sure your portfolio stays in shape and expected returns are not compromised. While pruning make sure the strict vigilance is kept over the penny stocks or small caps and they are replaced or kept under straight proportion (lower value) in relation to the total value or the worth of the portfolio.
The Portfolio churning could be done once a year and almost all securities has to undergo the process where a retail investor has to match the performance of the complete portfolio with the performance of the market as well as each of the security with other alternatives available in the specific industry (i.e. Steel, IT, Banking and Telecom) or the asset category (Mutual Funds, Money Market Securities or Stocks).
Some theorists propounds that FDs (auto renewal) or Large Caps should not be touched in short run and kept for longer periods as their value will rise and you will get magical returns… It is not recommended to keep any Asset or Asset Category to be kept unchecked. Though the advice is not to sell any asset if the prices are found extraordinarily high or low and replace them with something which might not be an exact match or the replacement for the asset you have sold. Recommended is to check and if financial sensibilities and indicators show that the financial asset is secured and still profitable then to keep it and if possible try to diversify the portfolio by buying or bringing in more assets or assets categories.
It has to be noted that more observant you are, more aware and vigilant you are, more secured will be your portfolio and higher will be the expected returns.